DOW
Saturday, June 17, 2006
Friday, June 16, 2006
Thursday, June 15, 2006
BREITBART.COM - Text of al-Zarqawi Safe-House Document
BREITBART.COM - Text of al-Zarqawi Safe-House Document: "how to draw the Americans into fighting a war against Iran? It is not known whether American is serious in its animosity towards Iraq, because of the big support Iran is offering to America in its war in Afghanistan and in Iraq. Hence, it is necessary first to exaggerate the Iranian danger and to convince America and the west in general, of the real danger coming from Iran, and this would be done by the following:
1. By disseminating threatening messages against American interests and the American people and attribute them to a Shi'a Iranian side.
2. By executing operations of kidnapping hostages and implicating the Shi'a Iranian side.
3. By advertising that Iran has chemical and nuclear weapons and is threatening the west with these weapons.
4. By executing exploding operations in the west and accusing Iran by planting Iranian Shi'a fingerprints and evidence.
5. By declaring the existence of a relationship between Iran and terrorist groups (as termed by the Americans).
6. By disseminating bogus messages about confessions showing that Iran is in possession of weapons of mass destruction or that there are attempts by the Iranian intelligence to undertake terrorist operations in America and the west and against western interests. "
1. By disseminating threatening messages against American interests and the American people and attribute them to a Shi'a Iranian side.
2. By executing operations of kidnapping hostages and implicating the Shi'a Iranian side.
3. By advertising that Iran has chemical and nuclear weapons and is threatening the west with these weapons.
4. By executing exploding operations in the west and accusing Iran by planting Iranian Shi'a fingerprints and evidence.
5. By declaring the existence of a relationship between Iran and terrorist groups (as termed by the Americans).
6. By disseminating bogus messages about confessions showing that Iran is in possession of weapons of mass destruction or that there are attempts by the Iranian intelligence to undertake terrorist operations in America and the west and against western interests. "
Tuesday, June 13, 2006
Saturday, June 10, 2006
Wednesday, June 07, 2006
Saturday, June 03, 2006
SFO Magazine Official Journal for Personal Investing in Stocks, Futures and Options
SFO Magazine Official Journal for Personal Investing in Stocks, Futures and Options: "How does a trader make money in the markets? By learning from his mistakes. Read how one did it."
USATODAY.com - $363M is average pay for top hedge fund managers
USATODAY.com - $363M is average pay for top hedge fund managers: "NEW YORK — James Simons, a mathematician turned money manager who prefers hiring Ph.D.s over MBAs, inched out oil tycoon T. Boone Pickens Jr. as the world's best-paid hedge fund manager in 2005, collecting an estimated $1.5 billion, according to rankings released today by Institutional Investor's Alpha magazine.
In rising to the top of what amounts to a who's who list of the secretive hedge fund world, Simons, of Renaissance Technologies, unseated 2004's top earner and first-ever billion-dollar man, Edward Lampert of ESL Investments, who is best known for buying Kmart and masterminding the blockbuster deal to buy Sears. Lampert's earnings dipped to an estimated $425 million last year, down from $1.0 billion in 2004.
'These are staggering numbers,' said Alpha editor Michael Peltz in announcing its fifth-annual list of Top 25 earners. 'It took $130 million to make the list.'
Pickens also topped $1 billion, earning an estimated $1.4 billion. The average pay of the 26 (there was a tie for 25th place) on the list was $363 million, up 45% from $251 million in 2004."
In rising to the top of what amounts to a who's who list of the secretive hedge fund world, Simons, of Renaissance Technologies, unseated 2004's top earner and first-ever billion-dollar man, Edward Lampert of ESL Investments, who is best known for buying Kmart and masterminding the blockbuster deal to buy Sears. Lampert's earnings dipped to an estimated $425 million last year, down from $1.0 billion in 2004.
'These are staggering numbers,' said Alpha editor Michael Peltz in announcing its fifth-annual list of Top 25 earners. 'It took $130 million to make the list.'
Pickens also topped $1 billion, earning an estimated $1.4 billion. The average pay of the 26 (there was a tie for 25th place) on the list was $363 million, up 45% from $251 million in 2004."
Tom Brown's bankstocks.com
Tom Brown's bankstocks.com: "The Bomb
Many observers view the Iranian quest for a nuclear bomb as an act of self preservation. The theory is that, if Saddam Hussein had possessed the bomb, he’d still be in power. There wouldn’t have been either a first Gulf War or a 2003 invasion. North Korea has shown the bargaining and deterrent power that the bomb possession provides. Iranian conservatives seem confident that the UN will never order the imposition of sanctions: China and Russia would likely block them, even if the Europeans come around. China’s need for energy is so great that it wouldn’t want to be cut off from Iran. Also, Russian construction, building contracts and business dealings with Iran are so extensive that the Russians would be reluctant to see them end."
Many observers view the Iranian quest for a nuclear bomb as an act of self preservation. The theory is that, if Saddam Hussein had possessed the bomb, he’d still be in power. There wouldn’t have been either a first Gulf War or a 2003 invasion. North Korea has shown the bargaining and deterrent power that the bomb possession provides. Iranian conservatives seem confident that the UN will never order the imposition of sanctions: China and Russia would likely block them, even if the Europeans come around. China’s need for energy is so great that it wouldn’t want to be cut off from Iran. Also, Russian construction, building contracts and business dealings with Iran are so extensive that the Russians would be reluctant to see them end."
Turn short-term fear into long-term profit - MSN Money
Turn short-term fear into long-term profit - MSN Money
The developing world is growing richer
Oh, not all of it. But countries such as China, India and Vietnam -- more than 2 billion people just in those three, and many more in other developing nations -- are growing their economies at rates double or triple the 3% growth rate for the developed world projected by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. That will add hundreds of millions of consumers to the global middle class who will demand middle-class products and services such as life insurance, home mortgages, hotel rooms and cars.
In a February 2005 column, I picked 12 global winners flying below the radar screen. Nothing has changed my mind about the fundamental trends driving stocks such as insurance giant American International Group (AIG, news, msgs), South Korean banking company Kookmin Bank (KB, news, msgs), hotelier Accor Asia Pacific (ACRFF, news, msgs) and the Philippine beverage producer San Miguel (SMGBY, news, msgs).
Demand for commodities will continue to exceed supply
A fast-growing developing world has created demand for commodities that global commodity producers in industries from oil to copper to coal to iron (and don't forget water) are having a tough time meeting. That has produced what some Wall Street investment houses are calling a "supercycle" boom in commodities prices.
I gave a talk on the commodities boom -- and why it will last longer than the usual commodities boom -- at the Las Vegas Money Show in mid-May. You can find a link to the PowerPoint version of that talk here. That presentation and recent columns on this topic -- "3 stocks for the commodities rebound" (May 19) and "Don't write off emerging markets yet" (May 24) -- recommend stocks such as BHP Billiton (BHP, news, msgs), Phelps Dodge (PD, news, msgs), Newmont Mining (NEM, news, msgs) and Companhia Vale Do Rio Doce (RIO, news, msgs).
------------------------------------------
The dollar will continue to slide
Probably not as fast as the doomsayers now predict because Japan and the European Union have their own problems that will keep pressure on the yen and euro. But thanks to our huge trade deficit and the utterly feckless fiscal policy in Washington, the world isn't exactly clamoring to hold more U.S. dollars. The standard ways to hedge a weakening dollar are:
* Buy non-dollar denominated stocks, such as Nestlé (NSRGY, news, msgs).
* Buy U.S. stocks such as General Electric (GE, news, msgs) that do big business overseas. They will sell more products with a weaker dollar, and those overseas revenues will be worth more when translated back into dollars.
* Buy gold stocks such as Newmont Mining (NEM, news, msgs) and Glamis Gold (GLG, news, msgs).
The U.S., with its combination of great wealth and relatively high rate of population increase (thanks to a relatively high birth rate and relatively open immigration policy), might be best positioned to muddle through. But it will require the baby boomers to cash in real estate by downsizing to cheaper geographies, and require that those boomers admit that the country can't afford to spend every last cent on prolonging their lives.
Best bet on the demographics of U.S. real estate: banks and land companies in low-cost retirement areas such as the Carolinas, Georgia, Arkansas and parts of Texas. (This will be the subject of a future column.) And if you're cynical about any attempts to control health-care costs, as I am, look to companies that profit from the chronic diseases of old age. (Another future column, I promise.)
Get the latest from Jim Jubak. Sign up to receive his free weekly newsletter.
Preferred format:
HTMLPlain Text
Your e-mail address:Learn more about newsletters
Those are the five trends that inform my portfolio and Jubak's Picks. You may have others that are equally valid -- or more so -- and equally broad. As always, I'm sure you'll let me know by e-mail when we disagree.
But whether you follow my five trends or your own, here are three rules for using short-term volatility to improve your long-term profits.
* If your portfolio is underweighted in any of your long-term trends, use weakness to bring your exposure up to your target level. So for example, I'd like to have about 15% of Jubak's Picks in gold, given my belief in the inflation trend. This equally weighted portfolio -- all stocks start out with the same dollar investment -- is fully invested at 33 stocks. Right now, I hold 30, and three of those are gold stocks: Newmont, Glamis Gold and Anglo-American plc (AAUK, news, msgs). So I'm going to add another gold stock by repurchasing GoldCorp (GG, news, msgs) to bring my exposure up to 13%.
* Don't buy randomly just because a stock is cheaper than it was, and don't load up on sectors just because they've taken big hits. Keep to your asset-allocation goals, whatever they are. An unbalanced portfolio is dangerous at any time.
* Within your asset allocations, use weakness to trade up. So, for example, with this column I'm going to sell my position in Sysco (SYY, news, msgs), the giant U.S. food distributor that has held up well in the sell off but that recently announced disappointing inflation news, and buy Central European Distribution (CEDC, news, msgs), a Polish producer, distributor and importer of vodka and other alcoholic beverages, that has been hammered by bad news on an acquisition attempt and by the sell-off in the emerging markets. The switch increases my non-dollar holdings in the food sector.
I realize that none of this will eliminate your nervousness about the stock market and the recent sell-off. Fear is sometimes just part of investing, to be honest. Everybody feels it at some moments. It's what you do when you feel afraid that counts.
The developing world is growing richer
Oh, not all of it. But countries such as China, India and Vietnam -- more than 2 billion people just in those three, and many more in other developing nations -- are growing their economies at rates double or triple the 3% growth rate for the developed world projected by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. That will add hundreds of millions of consumers to the global middle class who will demand middle-class products and services such as life insurance, home mortgages, hotel rooms and cars.
In a February 2005 column, I picked 12 global winners flying below the radar screen. Nothing has changed my mind about the fundamental trends driving stocks such as insurance giant American International Group (AIG, news, msgs), South Korean banking company Kookmin Bank (KB, news, msgs), hotelier Accor Asia Pacific (ACRFF, news, msgs) and the Philippine beverage producer San Miguel (SMGBY, news, msgs).
Demand for commodities will continue to exceed supply
A fast-growing developing world has created demand for commodities that global commodity producers in industries from oil to copper to coal to iron (and don't forget water) are having a tough time meeting. That has produced what some Wall Street investment houses are calling a "supercycle" boom in commodities prices.
I gave a talk on the commodities boom -- and why it will last longer than the usual commodities boom -- at the Las Vegas Money Show in mid-May. You can find a link to the PowerPoint version of that talk here. That presentation and recent columns on this topic -- "3 stocks for the commodities rebound" (May 19) and "Don't write off emerging markets yet" (May 24) -- recommend stocks such as BHP Billiton (BHP, news, msgs), Phelps Dodge (PD, news, msgs), Newmont Mining (NEM, news, msgs) and Companhia Vale Do Rio Doce (RIO, news, msgs).
------------------------------------------
The dollar will continue to slide
Probably not as fast as the doomsayers now predict because Japan and the European Union have their own problems that will keep pressure on the yen and euro. But thanks to our huge trade deficit and the utterly feckless fiscal policy in Washington, the world isn't exactly clamoring to hold more U.S. dollars. The standard ways to hedge a weakening dollar are:
* Buy non-dollar denominated stocks, such as Nestlé (NSRGY, news, msgs).
* Buy U.S. stocks such as General Electric (GE, news, msgs) that do big business overseas. They will sell more products with a weaker dollar, and those overseas revenues will be worth more when translated back into dollars.
* Buy gold stocks such as Newmont Mining (NEM, news, msgs) and Glamis Gold (GLG, news, msgs).
The U.S., with its combination of great wealth and relatively high rate of population increase (thanks to a relatively high birth rate and relatively open immigration policy), might be best positioned to muddle through. But it will require the baby boomers to cash in real estate by downsizing to cheaper geographies, and require that those boomers admit that the country can't afford to spend every last cent on prolonging their lives.
Best bet on the demographics of U.S. real estate: banks and land companies in low-cost retirement areas such as the Carolinas, Georgia, Arkansas and parts of Texas. (This will be the subject of a future column.) And if you're cynical about any attempts to control health-care costs, as I am, look to companies that profit from the chronic diseases of old age. (Another future column, I promise.)
Get the latest from Jim Jubak. Sign up to receive his free weekly newsletter.
Preferred format:
HTMLPlain Text
Your e-mail address:Learn more about newsletters
Those are the five trends that inform my portfolio and Jubak's Picks. You may have others that are equally valid -- or more so -- and equally broad. As always, I'm sure you'll let me know by e-mail when we disagree.
But whether you follow my five trends or your own, here are three rules for using short-term volatility to improve your long-term profits.
* If your portfolio is underweighted in any of your long-term trends, use weakness to bring your exposure up to your target level. So for example, I'd like to have about 15% of Jubak's Picks in gold, given my belief in the inflation trend. This equally weighted portfolio -- all stocks start out with the same dollar investment -- is fully invested at 33 stocks. Right now, I hold 30, and three of those are gold stocks: Newmont, Glamis Gold and Anglo-American plc (AAUK, news, msgs). So I'm going to add another gold stock by repurchasing GoldCorp (GG, news, msgs) to bring my exposure up to 13%.
* Don't buy randomly just because a stock is cheaper than it was, and don't load up on sectors just because they've taken big hits. Keep to your asset-allocation goals, whatever they are. An unbalanced portfolio is dangerous at any time.
* Within your asset allocations, use weakness to trade up. So, for example, with this column I'm going to sell my position in Sysco (SYY, news, msgs), the giant U.S. food distributor that has held up well in the sell off but that recently announced disappointing inflation news, and buy Central European Distribution (CEDC, news, msgs), a Polish producer, distributor and importer of vodka and other alcoholic beverages, that has been hammered by bad news on an acquisition attempt and by the sell-off in the emerging markets. The switch increases my non-dollar holdings in the food sector.
I realize that none of this will eliminate your nervousness about the stock market and the recent sell-off. Fear is sometimes just part of investing, to be honest. Everybody feels it at some moments. It's what you do when you feel afraid that counts.
Model Behaviorist's 5/31/2006 Journal-- Strategy Lab - MSN Money
Model Behaviorist's 5/31/2006 Journal-- Strategy Lab - MSN MoneyBut there are times when a lot of stuff can be going wrong in the world, and the market does not climb the wall of worry. Sometimes, investors do get into a dark mood and sell into bad news. And, they appear to get into that mood about once every four years -- or actually about every 52 months.
Starting in mid-May, I grew bearish about the prospects for stocks this summer and encouraged subscribers to likewise become much more cautious. Set stops to get you out of stocks at definitive breakdown points (under significant past support) and either replace them with “defensive” names or just go to cash, as I did in Strategy Lab.
Preparing for the worst
If you're like most investors, you have made a lot of money in the past four years. We all made a killing in housing stocks, small-caps, mid-caps, energy and metals. And we want it to go on forever. But there are cycles to all things, whether it's the seasons of the year, or sports or stocks. Learn the lesson of Scott McNealy's enthusiasm in October 2000. The cycle is really turning hard against stocks right now, and it's time to prepare for the worst.
To be totally blunt, I think there is real potential for a 10% to 25% decline over the next six months -- with the harsher end of the spectrum the more likely. As much as I wish that weren't the case, it seems unavoidable. What's worse, a lot of the stocks that smaller investors are the most heavily invested in -- the small-caps and mid-caps -- could get hurt even worse.
I'm not forecasting a "secular" bear market, where stocks might go down for years. So if you are tough as nails and want to just hang tight to your long-term holdings, go ahead. But for the rest of you, I'm just suggesting that the potential for a decline over the next six months now is greater than you may be willing to bear. And if the market firms up and doesn't go down, at the very worst, you will lose some opportunity -- not money.
There are a couple of issues that have driven me in this direction. The most important is the historical tendency of the market to suffer a serious bearish phase every 52 months, or roughly four years. They occur with great consistency. Just looking at the postwar period, we had bear markets in 1949, 1953, 1962, 1966, 1970, 1974, 1978, 1982, 1987, 1990, 1994, 1998 and 2002. This is sort of like one of those easy math tests that schools give fifth-graders. What is the next likely number in this series?
Should reach a bottom late in 2006
The last bear-market bottom occurred in October 2002. So, using history as a measuring stick, we would expect another bottom in August to December of this year.
Starting in mid-May, I grew bearish about the prospects for stocks this summer and encouraged subscribers to likewise become much more cautious. Set stops to get you out of stocks at definitive breakdown points (under significant past support) and either replace them with “defensive” names or just go to cash, as I did in Strategy Lab.
Preparing for the worst
If you're like most investors, you have made a lot of money in the past four years. We all made a killing in housing stocks, small-caps, mid-caps, energy and metals. And we want it to go on forever. But there are cycles to all things, whether it's the seasons of the year, or sports or stocks. Learn the lesson of Scott McNealy's enthusiasm in October 2000. The cycle is really turning hard against stocks right now, and it's time to prepare for the worst.
To be totally blunt, I think there is real potential for a 10% to 25% decline over the next six months -- with the harsher end of the spectrum the more likely. As much as I wish that weren't the case, it seems unavoidable. What's worse, a lot of the stocks that smaller investors are the most heavily invested in -- the small-caps and mid-caps -- could get hurt even worse.
I'm not forecasting a "secular" bear market, where stocks might go down for years. So if you are tough as nails and want to just hang tight to your long-term holdings, go ahead. But for the rest of you, I'm just suggesting that the potential for a decline over the next six months now is greater than you may be willing to bear. And if the market firms up and doesn't go down, at the very worst, you will lose some opportunity -- not money.
There are a couple of issues that have driven me in this direction. The most important is the historical tendency of the market to suffer a serious bearish phase every 52 months, or roughly four years. They occur with great consistency. Just looking at the postwar period, we had bear markets in 1949, 1953, 1962, 1966, 1970, 1974, 1978, 1982, 1987, 1990, 1994, 1998 and 2002. This is sort of like one of those easy math tests that schools give fifth-graders. What is the next likely number in this series?
Should reach a bottom late in 2006
The last bear-market bottom occurred in October 2002. So, using history as a measuring stick, we would expect another bottom in August to December of this year.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
